Last week, markets traded mainly range bound as economic data and corporate earnings met expectations. In the week ahead, market participants will be closely watching for any clues from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the meeting could provide important information on future policy.
With future monetary policy in focus, investors will be looking for any update on the intermediate-term outlook for inflation and details on plans for shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. I expect the Fed to reaffirm that inflation will increase to its desired level in the intermediate term despite it being below the 2% target currently. I will also be watching to see if the Fed makes any statements around the increase in asset prices, as several Fed officials have indicated growing concerns with asset price inflation.
On Friday, the Commerce Department will release second quarter GDP. Improving consumer spending is expected to push GDP to 2.6%. Unless GDP is materially different than anticipated, I don't expect any significant market reaction.
I remain cautiously bullish on stocks and modestly bearish on fixed income. I don't expect a catalyst to move markets significantly until later in the year.
This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client. Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.