New Risks Emerge in the Russian Conflict

June 26, 2023

New Risks Emerge in the Russian Conflict  Photo

Financial and commodity markets are opening the week in line with Friday’s close, as investors try to assess the implications of the mutiny by Russian forces over the weekend. This new twist adds pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to maintain his power and risks an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. If U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s assessment that we have yet to see “the final act” is accurate, market volatility is likely to pick up as this story unfolds.1

The economic calendar this week includes new data on the state of the housing market, with new home sales information out Tuesday.2 Home builder stocks and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index — a monthly sentiment survey of members of the National Association of Home Builders — have rebounded strongly this year despite continued tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and mortgage rates above the 7% mark.3,4 The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, comes out Friday and will also be closely watched as another data point to gauge the odds of the Fed resuming rate hikes this summer.      



1The U.S. Department of State – Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Jonathan Karl of ABC This Week; 6/25/2023

2MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 6/26/2023

3National Association of Home Builders – Builder Confidence Moves into Positive Territory in June; 6/19/2023 – Current Mortgage Rates; 6/26/2023

Tags: Market volatility | Russia | Global economy | Economic impact | rate hikes

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