Treasuries Top $30 Trillion Ahead of FOMC Decision
December 8, 2025
Treasuries finished with their worst week since June as we head for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision this Wednesday.1 The 30-year Treasury was down by over 2% for the week, finishing 13 basis points (bps) higher at 4.79%.2 U.S. equities, meanwhile, closed near the highs of the year.3 The S&P 500 Index is up over 18% year-to-date, driven by strength in artificial intelligence (AI), industrials and commodities.4 September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report met expectations, and core PCE prices rose 0.2% month over month.5 Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target but has been steady.
Last week, investors expressed their views on big growth and reflation, as was observed in stocks, commodities and the bond market. The additional supply in U.S. Treasuries weighed on rates as U.S. Treasuries topped $30 trillion outstanding for the first time ever.6 On Friday, Netflix announced its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. for nearly $83 billion, although Paramount does not appear to be going away quietly, leaving the outcome uncertain.7 As the financing is contemplated today, the committed bridge loan from Wall Street to Netflix marks the largest ever investment-grade bridge loan from a single bank (Wells Fargo) at $29.5 billion.8 Perhaps this is a sign of banks’ willingness for more mergers in 2026.
It’s a big week ahead and will likely set the stage for how markets conclude 2025. Wednesday brings the main event with the FOMC rate decision, widely expected to result in a 25-basis-point cut, accompanied by a hawkish tone during the press conference.9 Also on Wednesday, Oracle will report earnings after the close.10 Investors will pay close attention to the implications for hyperscalers and the sentiment surrounding AI for 2026 and beyond. Aside from Wednesday’s main events, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday will be critical as the Fed continues to operate in the data fog.11
Sources:
1-6, 10Bloomberg
7NBC News – Netflix agrees to buy Warner Bros. and HBO Max, creating streaming titan; 12/5/25
8Yahoo! Finance – Netflix’s $59 Billion Loan for Warner Bros. Among Biggest Ever; 12/5/25
9, 11MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 12/8/25
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