Volatility and Rates Rising
March 30, 2026
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Last week, markets remained choppy as they had all month, as geopolitics and energy prices dominated cross-asset performance. The S&P 500 Index posted its fifth straight weekly decline.1 Rate-sensitive and growth sectors were under pressure, as elevated oil prices reinforced “higher-for-longer” rate expectations and tightened financial conditions. Treasury yields moved higher out of the curve while credit markets softened modestly, reflecting concerns that energy-driven inflation could delay progress toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% inflation target.2
The 30-year Treasury approached 5%, and the 10-year Treasury finished the week at 4.43%.3 Investor sentiment was further tested by mixed economic signals and skeptical relief rallies tied to ping-pong headlines around Middle East de-escalation efforts, which ultimately failed to gain traction. Investment-grade corporate supply in March is poised to be one of the highest on record, demonstrating investor appetite and ability to invest at current levels.4
In the upcoming holiday-shortened week, attention turns back to macro data with several releases that could recalibrate growth and inflation expectations. Key highlights include the March Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on April 1 and the March U.S. Employment Report on April 3, both critical inputs for assessing whether labor-market resilience can persist amid tighter conditions.5 Markets will also parse ongoing Fed communications for guidance following the March meeting, while volatility is likely to remain sensitive to energy prices and geopolitical developments. Borrowing from my post last week, remaining at the top of our watch list are policymakers—the old adage that “markets stop panicking when policymakers start to” still seems to resonate.
Sources:
1-3,5Bloomberg
4JPMorgan
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