Setting Record Highs and Lows
April 20, 2026
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Over the past week, equity markets set generational highs across the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 Indices.1 Gains in risk assets were primarily driven by positive developments related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and signs that the U.S.-Iran conflict may be approaching a resolution. In credit markets, both high-yield and investment-grade spreads were on firm footing and finished the week tighter.2
The continued decline in volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, from the start of the month alongside oil prices moving below $90 per barrel supported the narrative that investors have been increasingly focused on economic strength and less on the geopolitical landscape.3 The rotation back into technology stocks has propelled the Nasdaq Composite Index to 13 consecutive days of positive returns, the longest streak since 1992.4 Meanwhile, as equity markets sit at highs, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is sitting at a 74-year record low.5 As a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift, markets opened under pressure last week as U.S.-Iran peace talks were collapsing, and early trading today has a similar tone. The U.S. interception of an Iranian cargo ship has pushed oil prices back toward $90 per barrel, equities are opening weaker and rates are edging higher in sympathy.6
This week, Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair confirmation hearing is set for Tuesday.7 Prediction markets currently assign a 38% probability of confirmation by May 15, which could increase market uncertainty.8 Tuesday also brings the ADP weekly employment report, retail sales and pending home sales.9 On Thursday, initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 210,000, near last week's 207,000 and indicating steady employment.10 On Friday, investors will get a fresh look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey results and inflation expectations.11 Earnings season also continues, with results exceeding expectations so far. According to FactSet, with only 10% of the S&P 500 Index companies reporting, 88% have reported positive EPS surprises and the earnings growth rate is 13.2%.12
Sources:
1-3,9-11Bloomberg
4Business Insider – The post-ceasefire rally just lifted the Nasdaq to its longest win streak in 34 years; 4/17/26
5Morningstar – Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low, per Michigan Survey; 4/10/26
6CNN – Oil prices rally after US seizes Iranian ship, imperiling peace talks; 4/20/26
7,8The Wall Street Journal – A Smooth Succession at the Fed? Prediction Markets Are Increasingly Doubtful; 4/16/26
12FactSet – Earnings Insight; 4/17/26
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