Strong Earnings and Capital Flowing
April 27, 2026
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Earnings season has started on solid footing, with results broadly exceeding expectations. Friday's post-earnings move in Intel's stock is particularly noteworthy, as the stock finished up 24%—its best day since 1987 and a record high.1 The move underscores the scale of the U.S. government’s August 2025 investment of nearly $9 billion, when the stock traded around $20 per share.2 Intel closed Friday above $82 per share, representing an estimated $27 billion gain for the U.S. government.3 Friday also brought the announcement that the Department of Justice would drop its investigation into the current Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, paving the way for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation. Both catalysts helped propel the S&P 500 Index to another record high, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index extended its winning streak to 18 consecutive days.4 Credit markets have been relatively stagnant but at tight spreads, with the U.S. Corporate Investment-Grade Index remaining below 80 basis points.5
With oil prices remaining elevated, albeit off recent highs, the 10-year U.S. Treasury sits at 4.31%.6 Beneath the surface, proposed regulatory changes could allow U.S. banks to release $320 billion in capital.7 Another major source of capital relief emerged last week with the opening of a refund portal for $166 billion in tariff reimbursements.8
In the week ahead, roughly one-third of the S&P 500 Index is scheduled to report earnings.9 Investors would welcome earnings with the same strength as corporations have been demonstrating thus far. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in what will likely be Fed Chair Powell’s last press conference.10 Although labor markets remain stable, inflation is still running high, which could give the upcoming press conference a more hawkish tone. However, with Warsh's confirmation process less complicated, we anticipate the market reaction to be more muted. Thursday brings the first look at first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and current expectations are for an improved 2.2%.11 Friday’s economic releases include the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prices paid and new order numbers, which may provide further support for the economic strength underway.12
Sources:
1Bloomberg – Intel Shares Eclipse Dot-Com Peak After Blockbuster Forecast; 4/24/2026
2,3Intel – Press Release: Intel and Trump Administration Reach Historic Agreement to Accelerate American Technology and Manufacturing Leadership; 8/22/2025
4,5,11,12Bloomberg
6,10CNBC – Treasury yields are little changed ahead of Fed policy week; 4/27/2026
7U.S. News – US Banks Could Release $320 Billion in Capital With New Draft Rules, Analysts Say; 4/8/2026
8The New York Times – Trump Administration Takes Steps to Refund $166 Billion in Tariffs; 4/21/2026
9Charles Schwab – Stocks Slip, Oil Up to Start Crowded Earnings Week; 4/27/2026
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