A New Year, with $50 Oil and a Strong Q1 for the U.S. Economy?

January 5, 2015

A New Year, with $50 Oil and a Strong Q1 for the U.S. Economy? Photo

With the beginning of a new year, hope and optimism for a bright future is always top of mind. I am very excited about 2015 for many reasons, but one of my top professional reasons is for what could become of Penn Mutual Asset Management in the years ahead. Today we officially launch the rebranded Independence Capital Management, Inc. (ICMI), with a team of 25 tremendously talented investment professionals. To get to this point, this group has put in a significant amount of work over the past six months, and they have been assisted by numerous associates from Penn Mutual. I have a strong belief that their knowledge, creativity and teamwork will lead to great success in the future. I can't wait to be part of the journey ahead with all of you!

So what about the markets this week? The December employment number is released on Friday, and market action up to then will most likely be driven by the daily gyrations in oil and the U.S. dollar, which have seemed to capture all the headlines during the last few weeks. We expect some early week volatility, possibly pushing oil lower toward the $50/barrel level and then stabilizing. Interest rates most likely trade lower and retest the 2% level on the 10-Year Treasury, while U.S. stocks will remain under some pressure due to the weakening European economy, strong U.S. dollar and falling inflation expectations. We still think the U.S. economy is doing well and that economic data will surprise on the upside in the first quarter of 2015.

Tags: Monday Morning O'Malley | U.S. economy | Oil | Interest Rate | 10-Year Treasury | U.S. Dollar | Unemployment report | 2015 Outlook

< Go to Monday Morning Perspectives

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.

Subscribe to Our Publications