A Packed Holiday-Shortened Week
June 30, 2025
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Markets are lifting higher this morning as several positive headlines ended the week and continued over the weekend. In Washington, D.C., Republicans in the Senate are hoping to pass the reconciliation bill as soon as today, and the President hopes to sign the bill on the Fourth of July.1 Although the final cost of this bill could be more expensive than originally proposed, interest rates are taking it in stride as the 10-year Treasury rate is lower again today at approximately 4.26%.2 There were headlines at the end of last week about Canada’s proposed digital tax on the U.S.; however, it has been rescinded, and tariff negotiations are back on track.3 Additional headlines regarding progress or potential extensions for tariff negotiations are continuing to fuel markets higher. The bank stress test results on Friday were another positive for stocks.4
The U.S. holiday-shortened week ahead will feature a number of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, as well as several key economic reports. Today, we have the Chicago Business Barometer and two Fed speakers, Bostic and Goolsbee.5 Employment data this week includes the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data tomorrow, ADP out on Wednesday, the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for June on Thursday.6 In addition, the U.S. services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) services prices paid data will be released on Thursday.7
Sources:
1NBC News – Trump administration live updates: Senate to begin voting marathon on Republican agenda bill; 6/30/25
2CNBC – U.S. 10-Year Treasury; as of 6/30/25
3CNBC – Dow jumps 200 points, S&P 500 adds to record as investors bet on trade deals ahead; 6/30/25
4Reuters – U.S. banks rise as Fed stress test success clears path for payouts; 6/30/25
5Investing.com – Chicago PMI, Fed speakers to take center stage Monday; 6/27/25
6,7MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 6/30/25
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