Key Inflation Data on Tap This Week
July 14, 2025
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Even as pressure continues from the Trump administration for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell to lower interest rates, a July rate cut appears unlikely unless this week’s inflation data is much better than expected. The consumer price index (CPI) report is out Tuesday, with the overall and core June CPI readings expected to show a pickup to 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May.1 The producer price index follows on Wednesday and is also expected to show a modest uptick in inflation.2
While the Trump administration has shifted its focus to the front end of the Treasury yield curve, long-term interest rates are also not moving in the right direction. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above the 4.4% level last week,3 while 30-year Treasury rates are closing in on the psychologically important 5% level again.4
Investors will also be closely watching Wednesday’s release of the Fed Beige Book and Thursday’s retail sales report for more clues regarding the state of the U.S. economy.5 Last but not least, equity and credit markets will be adjusting to new tariffs announced by President Trump over the weekend — most notably, a 30% rate on the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1.6
Sources:
1,2,5MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 7/14/25
3,4CNBC – 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury; as of 7/14/25
6Reuters – Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico; 7/13/25
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