Payroll Friday (If Government Stays Open)
September 29, 2025
.jpg "iStock-1791717926_Washington DC (2).jpg")
U.S. equities remain near all-time highs and are opening better even as markets prepare for a potential U.S. government shutdown this week.1 While the odds of a partial government shutdown are increasing, markets do not appear concerned about a lasting impact (although there is the possibility of a delayed jobs report this Friday). Credit markets have been extremely busy; for example, the U.S. high-yield market experienced its busiest week in five years, marking the busiest September ever.2 The U.S. 10-year Treasury sits at 4.15%, near the lower end of this year’s range.3 The mergers and acquisitions market continues to percolate. The potential for the largest leveraged buyout in history, a $55 billion deal for Electronic Arts, is making headlines this morning.4
In the week ahead, we will be watching economic data from around the world. China’s National Bureau of Statistics Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September will be out early Tuesday.5 Tuesday also brings the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) for France and Germany,6 U.S. home prices for July and the August U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).7 The expectation for Wednesday’s ADP employment report for September is 50,000, which compares to the August report of 54,000 and would be a welcome sign of stabilization in employment hiring.8 Federal Reserve Chair Powell and others have pointed to monthly hiring in the 50,000-100,000 range, consistent with steady unemployment rates. The official U.S. jobs report is slated for this Friday (barring the government remains open), and expectations are for 50,000 (up from 22,000 in August).9 As a reminder, the U.S. government faces the expiration of its spending authorization on Tuesday, Sept. 30.
Sources:
1,3Investing.com – 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens; 9/29/25
2Goldman Sachs – as of 9/29/25
4Yahoo! Finance – EA stock jumps on $55 billion acquisition deal; 9/29/25
5FX Street – China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI; 9/29/25
6FX Street – Germany Consumer Price Index, France Consumer Price Index; 9/29/25
7MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 9/29/25
8-9Bloomberg
This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client. Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
