Renewed Tariff Concerns
October 13, 2025
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The S&P 500 Index reached another record high last Wednesday before selling off 2.7% on Friday amid renewed tariff concerns.1 President Trump announced plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports and expand export controls on critical software, in response to China’s new restrictions on rare earth mineral exports.2 The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined 10 basis points on the same day.3 Over the weekend, however, both sides adopted a more reconciliatory tone in their language.
On the data front, it was a quiet week amid the ongoing government shutdown. The minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released on Wednesday, reaffirmed the Committee’s easing bias, noting that “most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year.”4
In the week ahead, the data calendar remains light. On Tuesday, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released.5 On the inflation front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to the week of Oct. 20 due to the government shutdown,6 while it still plans to release Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday.7 The retail sales report, also set for Thursday,8 will be closely watched as it provides insight into consumer spending trends in the absence of broader government data. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting on Tuesday.9
The third quarter earnings season kicks off with bank results. According to FactSet, 37 S&P 500 Index companies are scheduled to report in the upcoming week, including roughly 65% of the Financials sector.10 Major firms, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Travelers Companies and Wells Fargo, are all set to release results.11
Sources:
1,3,5,7,8Bloomberg
2CNBC – Trump puts extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds export controls on ‘critical software’; 10/10/25
4Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 16-17, 2025
6U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled; October 2025
9Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – Calendar; October 2025
10,11FactSet – Earnings Insight; 10/10/25
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