Will Brick and Mortar Earnings Hold Markets Together?
November 17, 2025
Last week, the S&P 500 Index notched a positive return but battled through elevated volatility. At Friday’s open, the S&P 500 Index hit the lows of the week, down by over 300 basis points (bps) from the highs earlier that week.1 However, those lows were short-lived, and the market rallied back to finish the week up eight bps.2 Most of the uncertainty and rotation occurred in the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 23 on Friday morning.3,4 The VIX has only traded at that elevated level four times since Liberation Day.5 The UK Gilt market was also under pressure, with the 30-year Gilt down more than two points on Friday as yields spiked higher due to budget concerns.6 The 10-year Treasury also reversed course on Friday, finishing at 4.15%, almost 10 bps higher than where it started the day.7
Investors have been navigating three important catalysts: the nearly coin-flip chance of a rate cut in December, the uncertainty surrounding the first U.S. government employment report in two and a half months and upcoming major earnings.
During the week ahead, the main events include minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee and Nvidia earnings reports, both slated for Wednesday.8,9 Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are set to deliver remarks today, including Fed Presidents Williams and Kashkari as well as Fed Governor Waller.10 The U.S. jobs report for September will be released on Thursday, with the survey expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by 50,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.11 Friday brings the November flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports.12 Additionally, major brick and mortar companies are scheduled to report with Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, TJX, Walmart and Gap releasing earnings this week.13 Investors have concerns regarding the artificial intelligence (AI) narrative, the resilience of the consumer and unemployment — and this week’s data releases will provide critical insights into each.
Sources:
1-7Bloomberg
8,10-12MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 11/17/25
9,13Kiplinger – Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (November 17-21)
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