A Busy Week for Economic Data as Global Trade Approaches a Record in 2025
December 15, 2025
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Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) implemented the widely anticipated hawkish cut, lowering rates by 25 basis points (bps). This marks the third consecutive reduction, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75%.1 The more surprising headlines centered on the announcement of the $40 billion monthly T-bill purchases expected until April.2 These purchases, coupled with the monthly runoff of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested in T-bills, should provide ample liquidity for markets and help the Treasury and Federal Reserve (Fed) maintain a cap on Treasury rates. Equity markets delivered mixed performance, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index experiencing minor pullbacks amid profit-taking in technology and artificial intelligence sectors.3 Small-cap stocks rallied to record highs,4 signaling a rotation toward value and cyclical names. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield continued its move higher to 4.19%, up nearly 17 bps from the start of the month.5 According to a UN Trade and Development report, global trade is expected to grow 7% to a record $35 trillion in 2025.6 Interestingly, a key shift in the data reflects the increase in global trade at year end is driven by higher volumes rather than higher prices.
Looking to the week ahead, markets will focus on critical (and delayed) U.S. economic releases that could shape year-end sentiment. Key reports on Tuesday include November non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wage data, which will provide insight into labor market softness.7 On Thursday, the spotlight will be on inflation trends as the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is set to be released.8 These indicators, along with retail sales data earlier in the week, will help gauge growth momentum heading into the holiday season.9 Any signs of cooling inflation or labor softness could reinforce expectations for further Fed easing and fuel a Santa Claus rally, while stronger-than-expected data may temper optimism and keep investors cautious.
Sources:
1CNBC – Divided Fed approves third rate cut this year, sees slower pace ahead; 12/10/2025
2Federal Reserve Bank of New York – Statement Regarding Reserve Management Purchases Operations; 12/10/2025
3,4CNBC – S&P 500 retreats from record Friday, closes down for week as investors rush out of AI trade; 12/12/2025
5Bloomberg
6UN Trade and Development – Global trade to hit record $35 trillion despite slowing momentum; 12/9/2025
7-9MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 12/15/25
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