Earnings Season Underway
April 13, 2026
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After several challenging weeks for capital markets, investors welcomed the ceasefire with Iran, helping fuel a rally that brought the S&P 500 Index back to roughly flat year-to-date.1 That resilience is notable; the S&P 500 Index (including dividends) is down only nine basis points (bps) in 2026,2 despite an ongoing war in Iran, oil prices up more than 81% and the 10-year Treasury currently near 4.35%—18 bps higher on the year.3,4 Over the past week, Treasury yields were steady but closed narrowly lower as oil prices declined following the ceasefire. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released Friday was in line with expectations, with year-over-year inflation at 3.3%,5 still well above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. Over the weekend, rhetoric tied to negotiations in Pakistan has reignited upward pressure on oil and rates, which have moved closely together since the Iran conflict began.
For the week ahead, focus shifts back to earnings, macroeconomic data and policy signals. Key releases include the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, import/export prices on Wednesday and a heavy slate on Thursday featuring initial jobless claims, the New York and Philly Fed surveys and industrial production—each with potential to move front-end rates and the dollar by reshaping the near-term inflation and growth narrative.6 Markets will also monitor ongoing Fed speaker commentary for guidance ahead of the late-April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, alongside Treasury supply, notably the midweek 10-year auction and related buyback communications. Meanwhile, first-quarter earnings season gains momentum, with results and guidance likely to drive cross-asset volatility, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors and in megacap technology, where valuation and artificial intelligence capex themes remain key points of debate. According to FactSet, S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to grow a solid 12.6% for the first quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.7
Sources:
1-6Bloomberg
7FactSet – Earnings Insight; 4/10/26
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