This week will be important for determining the path of markets during the month of September. With the summer coming to a close and all of the lingering uncertainty about the strength of the U.S. and global economies, the release of this week’s economic data will be important. I will be watching two reports in particular: the ISM Manufacturing Index and the August employment report. If the ISM gauge remains above 50 and employment conditions stay strong, it will be evident that the U.S. economy continues to perform despite all of the trade noise. Some may argue that with the new tariff levels not reflected in the data, since they only took effect at the beginning of September, will further weaken the economy.
I expect market volatility to continue, but with U.S. Treasuries at record overbought conditions, any decent economic data could push rates higher.
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