Tariff Deadline Looms
July 7, 2025
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Major U.S. indices surged last week fueled by a stronger-than-expected jobs report and trade deal announcements. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week on a record high up 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively.1 The key unemployment rate was tighter than expected at 4.1% from 4.2% in May, signaling that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may hold off on cutting rates in the near term.2 Nonfarm payrolls were also stronger than expected with 147,000 jobs added in June, up from 144,000 in May.3 Treasury yields rose sharply following the report with the 2-year rising nearly 10 basis points (bps), while 10-year rates finished the day up approximately 7 bps to 4.35%.4
Over the holiday weekend, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law by President Trump.5 The bill narrowly passed in the Senate with the tie-breaking vote cast by Vice President J.D. Vance.6
In the week ahead, investors will be focused on trade policy as the 90-day pause on U.S. tariffs expires this Wednesday, July 9.7 The Trump administration plans to announce trade deals and tariff warnings today with the higher rates set to take effect on August 1.8 This week’s economic releases include the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes,9 which will dominate attention as investors look for more details around the extent of divisions among committee members.
Sources:
1-3CNBC – Dow jumps more than 300 points, S&P 500 sets new record after strong June jobs report; 7/3/25
4Bloomberg; as of 7/7/25
5The White House – President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Is Now the Law; 7/4/25
6PBS – Here’s what’s in the big bill that just passed the Senate; 7/1/25
7,8Yahoo! Finance – Trump tariffs live updates: Trump threatens extra 10% tariffs over 'anti-American' BRICS policies; 7/7/25
9MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 7/7/25
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