Oil Rising
March 9, 2026
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Capital markets are selling off to start the week, picking up where they left off on Friday. During the first week of March, markets experienced elevated volatility as geopolitical risks and macroeconomic data intersected. Equities declined early in the week after strikes on Iran pushed oil prices higher and spurred a broad pullback across equities and bonds.1 Markets later stabilized as investors evaluated the risk of extended supply disruptions. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week near their lows despite rallying from intraweek troughs, reflecting continued dip-buying in large-cap technology and artificial intelligence (AI)-linked names.2
In rates, Treasury yields rose amid concerns that higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.14% by week-end and continuing higher this morning.3 Investment-grade corporate credit markets remained relatively stable, while high-yield spreads widened amid a more uncertain macroeconomic and policy backdrop.4 By Friday, crude oil was up 35% to over $90 per barrel, underscoring its role as the clearest transmission channel for geopolitical risk.5 Oil prices rose an additional 17% Sunday night, exceeding $105 per barrel for the first time since 2022.6 Meanwhile, Friday’s jobs report was notably weak, leaving the Federal Reserve (Fed) in an increasingly difficult position.7
Looking ahead, investor focus will shift back toward U.S. inflation and monetary policy. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday is expected at 0.3%, which would be sequentially higher than January’s 0.2% reading and before the impact of the materially higher oil prices.8 On Tuesday, existing home sales will be a key metric to watch, with consensus expectations calling for a slight month-over-month decline to 3.88 million.9 The economic data regarding January's housing starts and building permits is scheduled for release on Thursday, both of which are expected to decline.10 Friday will bring the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report, which is forecast to improve to 0.3% from 0.4%.11 The ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a key uncertainty for energy markets and broader risk sentiment.
Sources:
1CNBC – S&P 500 closes flat, rebounding from lows as traders buy the dip after U.S.-Iran attacks: Live updates; 3/2/26
2-6, 8-11Bloomberg
7CNBC – U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%; 3/6/26
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