I hope everyone enjoyed the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The holiday-shortened week was relatively uneventful from a market perspective, with the upcoming November employment number and the December Federal Reserve meeting considered the big market-moving events.
Last week the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) number was unrevised at 1.3%, yet we saw an upward revision to third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) from 1.5% to 2.1%, which was consistent with market expectations. The one interesting piece of economic data was the November consumer confidence index, which fell from 99.1 in October to 90.4 in November. This sharp decline marks the lowest reading in 14 months and is surprising, given the low oil prices and solid employment conditions. While any one piece of economic data should be evaluated in the context of overall data on the economy, this fall in confidence could signal a warning. Be on the lookout for any confirming weakness from consumers as we enter the holiday spending season.
This week I expect the employment number to reinforce the trend of improving employment conditions.
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