Sluggish U.S. Growth, and Status Quo From Central Banks

May 2, 2016

Sluggish U.S. Growth, and Status Quo From Central Banks Photo

Last week the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) confirmed the current course of monetary policy. The Fed remains data-dependent in the U.S., and the BOJ continues to signal that it has the capacity to further stimulate with monetary policy.

First quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was a sluggish 0.5%, confirming that the Fed has room to remain accommodative as long as inflation remains in check. I do believe we will see a temporary uptick in inflation this year, but so far it has not materialized. Last week the Employment Cost Index was an expected 0.6% and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were 1.6% for the last year.

This week, we will get a look at the April employment number. After a string of expected or better–than-expected employment readings, the market may be set up for a disappointment if the headlong number is not greater than 200k.

Keep an eye on the Japanese yen, which is at its high over the last 18 months, and the Euro which is at a six-month high. This comes as gold prices continue to rise.

Tags: Monday Morning O'Malley | U.S. economy | Inflation | Federal Reserve | Employment numbers | Bank of Japan

< Go to Monday Morning O'Malley

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.

Subscribe to Our Publications