This week will be a busy one for the markets, particularly the bond market. The U.S. presidential election will hopefully be concluded with a clear winner, but the Treasury funding announcements, Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report all hold key information for the path of interest rates going forward. After last week’s eye-popping third quarter gross domestic product number of 33.1% growth, bonds will be closely watching the supply side of interest rates with the Treasury funding announcement. I expect supply to be increased materially across the yield curve to fund ever-growing deficits and the need for more stimulus in the coming months.
During its meeting, the Fed will likely continue to refine its thoughts on the pace of economic activity and reaffirm the tools at its disposal to assist the economic recovery. The week concludes with the October jobs report. The expectation is for 580,000 new jobs to be added. This will likely continue the deceleration in the number of jobs that have returned since the significant loss at the beginning of the year.
I expect bonds to struggle to find a clear direction, as factors pushing rates higher like supply are offset by the reality that the Fed has significant tools to manage the path of rates. Furthermore, the potential for a slowing economy due to an uptick in coronavirus cases could force a pullback in economic activity.
This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client. Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.