Last week saw a reversal in two market trends that have been occurring for the past several months: increasing oil prices and treasury yields. Oil prices dropped almost 10%, from $73/barrel to $66/barrel, on optimism that supply concerns stemming from sanctions on Iran and Venezuela would be more than offset by output increases from Saudi Arabia and Russia, who are looking to keep prices in check.
The past week also saw 10-year Treasury yields dropping from 3.12% to 2.90% - a significant reversal of recent increases. The decrease in yield comes as the odds of a June Fed rate increase have increased. These two reversals could have significant implications from emerging market currencies and risk markets across the globe.
The holiday-shortened week ahead will be headlined by the May employment report. Expectations are for a 180,000 increase in payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.9%, the lowest level since 2000. I will be watching the average hourly earnings portion of the report to see if wage gains are above the consensus of up 0.2% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year.
< Go to Monday Morning Perspectives
This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client. Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.