Bond Market Ignores Tough Talk From the Fed

January 9, 2023

Bond Market Ignores Tough Talk From the Fed Photo

Despite numerous Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warning investors to prepare for short-term interest rates remaining above the 5% level well into 2024, the more data-dependent bond market rallied strongly Friday after new economic reports indicated that growth and inflation are slowing. Improving news on the wage front in the December employment report eased fears of an inflationary wage-price spiral developing, while the December Institute of Supply Management (ISM) services index registered the weakest print since May 2020.

With the manufacturing ISM data already indicating weakness, the disappointing ISM services report indicates a contraction in the economy may already be at hand. Interest rates moved lower across the board and risk assets rallied on hopes that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearing an end.

The week’s economic data is highlighted by Thursday’s Consumer Price Index report and Friday’s University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.1 Investors will be looking for more validation that the improving news on inflation and moderating growth will bring the Fed’s view more in line with the bond market.      


1Source: MarketWatch- U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 1/9/23

Tags: Bond markets | Federal Reserve | Inflation | Economic data | Employment Report

< Go to Monday Morning Perspectives

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.

Subscribe to Our Publications